Tuesday, December 05, 2006
Caution: Hot Stove, Don't Get Burnt
By John Chandler
Major League Baseball should provide a first aid kit in the hotel rooms of each general manager at the Winter Meetings this week. In the mad rush to deal, somebody's likely to get burnt.
Shopping in this free agent market is like browsing Macy's on Christmas eve--it's slim pickin's. But that's not scaring away many teams. The Red Sox spent record money ($51 million) for the right to begin negotiating with phenomenal Japanese pitcher, Daisuke Matsuzaka. To actually sign the 26-year-old ace could cost them another $40 million or so. It all depends on what kind of mood Scott Boras (left) is in.
Boras, for those who don't know, is a general manager's nemesis. He's the high-rolling uber agent responsible for the inflated pricetags on players (see: Rodriguez, Alex). In addition to Matsuzaka, he represents soon-to-be former Oakland pitcher Barry Zito, who could command a $100 million deal.
Common sense would say just don't spend the money. But he wasn't invited to the winter meetings this week. Instead, it's a bidding war in a talent pool thinner than Kate Moss on a diet. Teams need to fill holes, proclaim themselves a contender, and raise ticket prices to offset the absurd costs of such irresponsible contracts.
The Indians are wise/cheap enough not to cough up that much cash for one player. Doing so would be like swinging a bat into Larry Dolan's piggy bank. That said, if Mark Shapiro is not careful he could end up grabbing, say, Dave Dellucci for $11.5 million over three years.
Wait, what? He just did? Ouch.
Is he worth it?
That is the fundamental question each general manager must ask, before forking over such cash to a free agent. It's like taking a deep breath before a big decision.
In college, I had a friend who was big into "Pro-Con" lists when she needed to make up her mind. For example:
Me: Liz, do you want to come to this party with me?
Liz: Wait, let me think about it...
Pro: I'll get to hang with Chandler.
Con: I'll have to babysit Chandler.
Hmm. That one seems like a win-win to me.
Now, at no additional charge, we'll do the honors for the Indians' Front Office.
Dave Dellucci, OF ('06 PHI: .292 BA/13 HR/39 RBI)
This one's already a done deal, for the aforementioned 3 years/$11.5 million.
Pro: His .292 average was highest in season with 200-plus at bats
Con: He's a career .263 hitter with a marginal .348 OBP
I'm thinking the Indians did this deal because they like the makeup of the player. He'll bring character to the clubhouse, but what about a bat to the lineup? Dellucci (right) will likely end up in a platoon in LF with Jason Michaels.
Joe Borowski, RP ('06 FLA: 3-3, 4.31 ERA, 36 Saves)
Likely Role: closer
Pro: Also saved 33 games for Cubs in '03 with 2.63 ERA
Con: Blew up in '04 (8.02 ERA)
His one year turnaround from 2003 to 2004 was brutal to watch. But he was solid at the back end of Florida's bullpen last year. The Indians are close to a one year deal with Borowski, who is in Cleveland this week to take a physical. His MRI with the Phillies raised enough of a red flag that they pulled a multi-year offer off the table.
Keith Foulke, RP ('06 BOS: 3-1, 4.35 ERA)
Likely Role: setup (could compete for closer)
Pro: Was arguably MVP for Red Sox in 2004 Championship season as closer
Con: Hasn't done a thing since
Foulke is also in negotiations with the Indians. I'm guessing a one year deal with an option would be the best fit. He wants to pitch closer to home, in Texas, but may not have that luxury. It's a risk, but if he comes cheap it may pay big dividends in the late innings.
Octavio Dotel ('06 NYY: 10 IP, 10.80 ERA)
Likely Role: setup (could compete for closer)
Pro: ?
Con: Struggled after August return from Tommy John surgery
This is a stretch. Indians scouts say Dotel's arm strength and velocity are close to normal, after a 14 month layoff from elbow surgery. If he can throw like he did in Houston, great. That's a big "if" though.
Bottom Line
There is a lesson to be learned in all of this. His name is Jeremy Sowers. The rookie LHP was brilliant in his first big league season in the Tribe's relatively homegrown starting rotation. When Shapiro hears that Vincente Padilla (4.50 ERA) stole $34 million from the Texas Rangers on Monday, he has to be thankful for his deep stable of talented young/cheap pitchers.
This year, the "fair" in "fair market value" is a misnomer. These free agents are stealing cash in bundles.
Now, can the Indians manage to slip out of the bank robbery that is the Winter Meetings without bleeding money?
Indians Nation, send us your thoughts. And please, no trade requests for Manny Ramirez--that's longer than a longshot. Don't forget to watch for them in the Alltel SoundOff on Toyota Sports Sunday at 11:33 PM on NewsChannel 5.
Major League Baseball should provide a first aid kit in the hotel rooms of each general manager at the Winter Meetings this week. In the mad rush to deal, somebody's likely to get burnt.
Shopping in this free agent market is like browsing Macy's on Christmas eve--it's slim pickin's. But that's not scaring away many teams. The Red Sox spent record money ($51 million) for the right to begin negotiating with phenomenal Japanese pitcher, Daisuke Matsuzaka. To actually sign the 26-year-old ace could cost them another $40 million or so. It all depends on what kind of mood Scott Boras (left) is in.Boras, for those who don't know, is a general manager's nemesis. He's the high-rolling uber agent responsible for the inflated pricetags on players (see: Rodriguez, Alex). In addition to Matsuzaka, he represents soon-to-be former Oakland pitcher Barry Zito, who could command a $100 million deal.
Common sense would say just don't spend the money. But he wasn't invited to the winter meetings this week. Instead, it's a bidding war in a talent pool thinner than Kate Moss on a diet. Teams need to fill holes, proclaim themselves a contender, and raise ticket prices to offset the absurd costs of such irresponsible contracts.
The Indians are wise/cheap enough not to cough up that much cash for one player. Doing so would be like swinging a bat into Larry Dolan's piggy bank. That said, if Mark Shapiro is not careful he could end up grabbing, say, Dave Dellucci for $11.5 million over three years.
Wait, what? He just did? Ouch.
Is he worth it?
That is the fundamental question each general manager must ask, before forking over such cash to a free agent. It's like taking a deep breath before a big decision.
In college, I had a friend who was big into "Pro-Con" lists when she needed to make up her mind. For example:
Me: Liz, do you want to come to this party with me?
Liz: Wait, let me think about it...
Pro: I'll get to hang with Chandler.
Con: I'll have to babysit Chandler.
Hmm. That one seems like a win-win to me.
Now, at no additional charge, we'll do the honors for the Indians' Front Office.
Dave Dellucci, OF ('06 PHI: .292 BA/13 HR/39 RBI)
This one's already a done deal, for the aforementioned 3 years/$11.5 million.
Pro: His .292 average was highest in season with 200-plus at bats
Con: He's a career .263 hitter with a marginal .348 OBP
I'm thinking the Indians did this deal because they like the makeup of the player. He'll bring character to the clubhouse, but what about a bat to the lineup? Dellucci (right) will likely end up in a platoon in LF with Jason Michaels.
Joe Borowski, RP ('06 FLA: 3-3, 4.31 ERA, 36 Saves)
Likely Role: closer
Pro: Also saved 33 games for Cubs in '03 with 2.63 ERA
Con: Blew up in '04 (8.02 ERA)
His one year turnaround from 2003 to 2004 was brutal to watch. But he was solid at the back end of Florida's bullpen last year. The Indians are close to a one year deal with Borowski, who is in Cleveland this week to take a physical. His MRI with the Phillies raised enough of a red flag that they pulled a multi-year offer off the table.
Keith Foulke, RP ('06 BOS: 3-1, 4.35 ERA)
Likely Role: setup (could compete for closer)
Pro: Was arguably MVP for Red Sox in 2004 Championship season as closer
Con: Hasn't done a thing since
Foulke is also in negotiations with the Indians. I'm guessing a one year deal with an option would be the best fit. He wants to pitch closer to home, in Texas, but may not have that luxury. It's a risk, but if he comes cheap it may pay big dividends in the late innings.
Octavio Dotel ('06 NYY: 10 IP, 10.80 ERA)
Likely Role: setup (could compete for closer)
Pro: ?
Con: Struggled after August return from Tommy John surgery
This is a stretch. Indians scouts say Dotel's arm strength and velocity are close to normal, after a 14 month layoff from elbow surgery. If he can throw like he did in Houston, great. That's a big "if" though.
Bottom Line
There is a lesson to be learned in all of this. His name is Jeremy Sowers. The rookie LHP was brilliant in his first big league season in the Tribe's relatively homegrown starting rotation. When Shapiro hears that Vincente Padilla (4.50 ERA) stole $34 million from the Texas Rangers on Monday, he has to be thankful for his deep stable of talented young/cheap pitchers.
This year, the "fair" in "fair market value" is a misnomer. These free agents are stealing cash in bundles.
Now, can the Indians manage to slip out of the bank robbery that is the Winter Meetings without bleeding money?
Indians Nation, send us your thoughts. And please, no trade requests for Manny Ramirez--that's longer than a longshot. Don't forget to watch for them in the Alltel SoundOff on Toyota Sports Sunday at 11:33 PM on NewsChannel 5.
Posted at 7:50 AM
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